Risk of ruin simulator
Your strategy, simulated 400 times. See the range of futures your risk settings actually allow.
Simulated equity paths Median path Half of starting balance
Median outcome
$1,124.37
Unlucky run (worst 10%)
$944.26
Lucky run (best 10%)
$1,338.82
Edge per trade
+0.13R
Chance of dipping below 80% of start
1%
Chance of dipping below 50% of start
0%
Drawdown vs. gain needed to recover
| Drawdown | Gain to get back to even |
|---|---|
| −10% | +11% |
| −20% | +25% |
| −30% | +43% |
| −50% | +100% |
| −70% | +233% |
Every re-run is a fresh set of random futures with identical settings — notice how much luck alone changes the outcome. A real edge shows up as most paths drifting upward over many trades, never as one lucky path.
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Tools
Educational tools only — results are estimates and not financial advice. Real trading involves risk of loss; most beginners lose money.